Black Friday 2009 is a Bust

Bad news is coming out on the retail front: US shoppers spent less over Black Friday weekend

"While shoppers turned out in force as early as U.S. Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, many said they had zeroed in on highly discounted items, would buy only what they needed and would walk out of a store if they did not find a good deal."

This is going to scare the bejeepers out of a lot of people, and might understandably start a race to slash prices that might rival what happened last year as retailers compete for what's turning out to be a diminished consumer appetite for spending.

More headlines:

1.) Black Friday weekend drew good crowds -- of penny-pinching shoppers: "Best Buy CEO Brian Dunn told Bloomberg that Black Friday lines were longer than last year's and that traffic was heavier on the retailer's website. But Dunn also told The Wall Street Journal that 'this is not a year where wallets are expanding' . . . Shoppers are only coming out for the big discounts and then retreating until retailers put out some more bait. Some experts have warned that stores may get quiet again for a couple of weeks until retailers launch more sales closer to the holidays."

I said last year that holding out for a better price is a game of chicken that consumers can always win. Retailers can put on a brave face and state that they won't be doing big sales like they did last year, but if consumers stay away, retailers will be forced to start slashing prices to bring them back into the stores.

2.) Bargains lured more shoppers, but spending down: "According to a survey by the National Retail Federation, 195 million shoppers visited stores and websites over the holiday weekend. The number is up 13.4% from last year's 172 million shoppers. But while the number of shoppers was up, average spending was down over last year. It's estimated that dollars spent per person dropped 17% from a year ago."

3.) And the Wall Street Journal chimes in with this quote: "The appetite among consumers this year seems to trend toward the lower-price items, the items they could literally afford with the money they already have in their wallet, said Ellen Davis, vice president of the Washington-based retail group, which has predicted a 1% decrease in November and December sales this year over last."

My take on all of the above? If you were afraid you might have missed out on the best bargains on Black Friday, I wouldn't worry about it. There's likely to be plenty more reduced price merchandise to come, especially as we get closer and closer to Christmas day. A final quote to drive the point home:

4.) Shoppers spent less over Black Friday weekend: "'If they don't have rebates and sales before Christmas, I don't think people are going to go back shopping after Black Friday,' said Joel Wincowski, a higher education consultant shopping at a Best Buy store in Plattsburgh, New York. He bought an Xbox 360 game console for $299 . . . 'We're going to cut back on everybody, even the kids,' he said."

I can imagine the kids aren't going to be too happy to hear that, but there's always a silver lining -- the reluctance of consumers to keep spending in the face of worsening employment numbers and continued financial unrest is probably the only thing keeping rapidy soaring inflation at bay.